Germany: What Does the Electoral Shock in Saxony and Thuringia Mean?

 

Will the "centre ground" politically survive? Will the "wall" of other political forces (especially the Christian Democrats) hold up against the far-right "Alternative for Germany"? Will the federal coalition government led by Olaf Scholz withstand the next 12 months, despite ongoing internal disagreements, or will it be dragged into early elections? Can a new coalition government be formed in Thuringia to avoid a governmental crisis?

These are the questions facing Germany in the wake of the five-yearly elections in the federal states of Saxony and Thuringia. Although the results were broadly anticipated, they are still shocking. The fact that the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) secured first place in Thuringia with a third of the votes is unprecedented in the history of reunified Germany. Meanwhile, its establishment as a strong second in neighbouring Saxony, with only a narrow margin from the ruling Christian Democrats, demonstrates the breadth of this trend, which is expected to be confirmed in the upcoming Brandenburg elections on September 22.

It’s worth noting that the AfD, founded in 2013 as a "professors' party" against rescuing Southern Europe, transformed in the wake of the 2015 refugee crisis and achieved its best-ever performance in the recent European elections on June 9.

The reshaping of the political landscape is also highlighted by the rise of a new party, BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, which was formed only a few months ago after splitting from the Left Party. This movement is oriented towards anti-NATO and more traditional labour policies (as opposed to "woke" politics). In other words, it shares with the AfD a cautious stance on continuing the Ukraine war and uncontrolled immigration.

For those who tend to treat the "extremes" as a single entity, it’s certainly not reassuring that the combined vote share of the AfD and BSW in the two states is roughly half of the total vote.

It is no coincidence that all three discussed states are in the eastern part of Germany, which, 34 years after reunification, remains divided from the rest of the country by various invisible "walls" - social, economic, and political. The sense among East Germans of being second-class citizens, wage disparities compared to the West, and differing political traditions explain the weakness of the "centre ground" forces in the region, with the exception of the Christian Democrats.

Notably, of the three parties in the federal coalition, the Greens and the Liberals have never gained a foothold in the East, while the Social Democrats under Chancellor Scholz are now limited to single-digit percentages, a historic low. The crisis of the Left Party (from which Thuringia’s prime minister came), following Sahra Wagenknecht’s departure, further adds to this picture.

Specifically, in Thuringia, with a population of two million, the AfD garnered 32.8% of the vote, the Christian Democrats 23.6%, BSW 15.8%, the Left Party 13.1%, and the Social Democrats 6.1%, with the Greens and Liberals falling below the 5% parliamentary threshold.

In Saxony, with a population of four million, the Christian Democrats, who have governed the state since 1990, remain in first place with 31.9%, closely followed by the AfD at 30.6%. BSW secured 11.8%, the Social Democrats 7.3%, the Greens 5.1%, and the Left Party 4.5%, thus remaining outside the political arena. Here, the governing coalition under Michael Kretschmer is expected to remain in power. The deviation from the central line of the Christian Democrats regarding the Ukraine war evidently played a role in shaping the result.

The recent elections also reflect national trends: discontent with the inflation crisis, neglected infrastructure, and "green policies," as well as the fact that the segment of the population cautious about the new Cold War tensions with Russia remains politically unrepresented by centre forces.

Additionally, the recent attack in Solingen, North Rhine-Westphalia, where a Syrian, possibly linked to ISIS (whose decided deportation had not been executed due to bureaucratic delays), fatally stabbed three people, has put the CDU in an especially awkward position. Party leader Christian Merz has swiftly called for the reintroduction of border controls (essentially the abolition of the Schengen Area), banning dual citizenship, and restricting residence permits and naturalisation. However, as has been clear in many other European cases, the centre-right often strengthens, rather than counters, the forces to its right by adopting their agenda.